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Schools

School Officials Expect No Growth in the Student Population Over the Next 10 Years

Student population expected to remain in the same pattern over next decade.

Vernon’s student population has not had an influx over the last decade and the same pattern will hold true over the next decade if an enrollment report presented to the board of education holds true.

The Vernon Board of Education on Monday received and enrollment report by Peter Prowda, who formerly worked for the state Department of Education, shared by Superintendent of Schools Mary Conway. 

The report showed how Vernon’s student population since 1970 has been on a decline. There will be little to no change at the elementary and middle school level, while the high school should see a decline over the next decade according to the report.

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“This report allows us to see where we are going from here,” Conway said. “What is the expectation?”

The report explains how Vernon’s student population has decreased and differs than that of the state and how the report can be used to project future needs in the district.

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“Vernon’s enrollment pattern is markedly different than that of the state’s public schools … Vernon never experienced the growth that other districts in the state had between 1988 and 2004,” the report stated.

In the early 1970s, Vernon’s enrollment reached its peak at 7,319 students. In the late 1980s, enrollment decreased to 4,289 students. Most districts in Connecticut experienced a growth in the 1990s, but Vernon did not. Enrollment has declined by 51.3 percent from the peak during 1971, according to the report.

“Enrollment will be pretty flat,” Conway said to the board. “I think our projection right now is pretty spot on.”

In the report, the cohort survival method is used to project enrollment. The  method looks at the survival of the current population and births that will occur. The method is generally used for five-year projections.  In the report's projection method section, a five-year weighted average was used. The data indicates that “six of the eight elementary growth rates are below 1.00 indicating that children are moving out of Vernon schools,” the report said. “The high rate in Grade 1 is usually indicative of parents choosing a full-day kindergarten elsewhere and then enrolling their children in Vernon Schools in Grade 1.”

Ninth-grade figures show that 14 percent are choosing to attend a non-public or other school for high school, some students returning and 9 percent repeating the grade, according to the report.  

Vernon’s student population decreased from 4,069 students in 2001 to 3,567 in 2011, a 12.3 percent or 502-student decrease. According to the report, a loss of 200 students can be attributed to the opening of magnet and charter schools throughout the state. Statewide, there has been a 2.8 percent decrease during the same period of time. Vernon is experiencing more of a decline in population than other similar towns – 1.4 percent in Middletown, 5.7 percent in Bristol, 6.7 percent in Plainfield, 10.1 percent in Putnam, 11.4 percent in Killingly, 17.5 percent in Manchester, and 17.8 percent in Bloomfield, the report said.

The report does not expected enrollment to change in Vernon over the next 10 years. The report projects Vernon will have an enrollment high in 2013 (3,555 students) and that a low will come in 2019 (3,480 students). In 2021, Vernon’s enrollment is expected to be at 3,510 students. The average enrollment in Vernon over the last 10 years has been 3,787.

Elementary enrollment in Vernon has declined over the last 10 years. The report indicates that enrollment will continue to decline. The projected enrollment figure for 2021 is 1,595, down from the 1,618 students currently enrolled in elementary school in Vernon. The numbers do not include pre-kindergarten, but the report does not see enrollment changing in this area. Elementary enrollment is being affected by fewer births in Vernon.

Enrollment at Vernon Center Middle School will stay level, according to the report. The report shows that in 2021 there will be 750 students, while there are 741 currently.

Rockville High School has 1,065 students in 2011. The report indicates that there will be 1,020 in 2021.

The report discusses 10 factors that might be affecting enrollment – town population, women of child-bearing age, recent changes in labor force, new home construction, sales of existing homes, Grade 9 repeaters, non-public enrollment, non-resident enrollment, resident enrollment in other public schools and student migration.

  • Vernon has had an approximate 7.4% population growth from 2000 and 2009.
  • The number of women of child-bearing age appears to be having fewer births than those in similar communities.
  • The Vernon labor force increased 5.5 percent between 2006 and 2010. Vernon has an 8.5 percent unemployment rate for 2010.
  • Construction of new homes in Vernon declined from 220 in 2005 to 13 in 2009. There were 30 permits issued in 2010.
  • Existing home sales have fluctuated over a five-year period from 218 in 2010 to 545 in 2005. An estimate of 260 sales is expected in 2011.
  • Data from 2005 to 2009 shows 14.6 percent of ninth graders repeating the grade. In 2010 the amount dropped to 8.7 percent followed by 9.2 percent in 2011.
  • Students attending non-public schools are decreasing in Vernon.
  • Enrollment in Open Choice and agriculture science and technology program has been decreasing since 2005.
  • Students attending schools outside of Vernon has increased from 61 in 2002 to 265 in 2011.
  • Estimated migration (factors non-resident students in Vernon and Vernon residents attending schools outside of Vernon) of students ranged from minus-3.5% in 2001 to plus-2.6% in 2010.

In summary, the report anticipates that enrollment will decrease by 1 to 2 percent between now and 2021. The report explains that elementary and middle school enrollment will see little change, while the high school will see a decline in enrollment.

“This remains a difficult time to predict future enrollment. A high unemployment rate, a sputtering economic recovery and mortgage foreclosures all make conditions today different than a few years ago,” the report said. “This projection should be used as a starting point for local planning. Examine the factors and assumptions underlying the method. You know your community best. Apply your knowledge of the specific conditions in Vernon and them make adjustments as necessary.”

Other Business

  • Instructional Coaches presented to the board what the program has looked like since its inception in January last year thanks to Education Jobs Funding. The five instructional coaches have assisted 50 teachers across the district from lesson plans, to modeling concepts to understanding and implementing differentiated learning. The coaches are currently collecting survey data from the teachers they have assisted.
  • A Safe School Climate Plan was presented to the board. This required by the state legislature. It requires schools to have a plan in place for bullying. The plan must have various levels – district, school, and committee to ensure that bullying is prohibited at schools. The district already has PBIS, which is the structure the SSCP will follow. The board’s policy committee is currently revising several district policies that will encompass much of what is expected by the new legislation for districts to have in place. The board approved the draft presented by Conway.
  • School Improvement Plans were presented to the board. All seven district schools have designed their school goals to fit with the district’s goals, but are tweaked to fit the personality of their perspective schools with strategies and how to implement the goals. The board’s goals are:
    • Build and improve relationships and partnerships with family and community.
    • Increase the achievement of every student through high quality curriculum, instruction and assessment.
    • Promote safe environments that are socially, emotionally, and physically conducive to learning.
    • The board approved a $100 donation to the Northeast School Library by Mr. and Mrs. Harold Delisle in memory of Katy Ruggles, former teacher at the school and Jill Auclair, a former paraprofessional at the school.
    • The board approved a motion to ask the Town Council to extend the contract with the Director of Public Works shared position between the Town of Vernon and the Vernon Board of Education for management and maintenance and custodial services until June 30, 2012. The board plans to incorporate changes at the district level maintenance department. They are currently working to create a project management time position and are in discussions with the union on how to accomplish this.
    • The board approved as complete various construction projects that have occurred at all the schools in town. The projects were opened years ago, but needed to be closed out.
    • The board was presented with an accounting to date.
      • All but $4.0 million (12.4 percent) of $47.46 million budget obligated
      • Actual expenditures by the end o five months last year to this year is favorable (34.2 percent vs. 32.3 percent)
      • Payroll and benefit encumbrances are up to date by additional modifications in December.
      • The excess Cost Grant reimbursement may be reduced from 100 percent to 75 percent of eligible expenditures in 2011-2012. This is a potential loss of $236,000 to Vernon.
      • IDEA grant funding not finalized yet for 2011-2012. There is also a potential of funding reduction.
      • Fuel oil has not been locked in to date. Diesel Fuel price was locked in at $3.15 per gallon. Purchase prices are:
        • No. 2 Heating Fuel          $3.00 per gallon          (2010-11 was $2.435)
        • Diesel Fuel                  $3.15 per gallon          (2010-11 was $2.59)
        • Gasoline                      $3.05 per gallon          (2010-11 was $2.59)
        • Magnet School tuitions total $349,982 with 88 students enrolled.
        • Open Choice tuition revenue projected at $45,000 with 15 students enrolled in Vernon.
        • State Revenue Projection for the educational Cost Sharing grant stays the same at $17,645,165.
  • The board entered into executive session to deal with a collective bargaining agreement with the custodians, maintenance staff and secretaries as well as discuss employee performance and pending litigation. Upon return, the board voted 8-1 to increase the wage for Local 1303-35 AFSCME Council 4 Custodians, Maintenance Staff, and Secretaries agreeing to an 2.25 percent increase in wages for fiscal year 2012-2013. William Nicholson voted against the measure. 
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